Saturday, August 15, 2009

Thoughts on "The Way of the Plex" devblog

I just enjoyed reading GM Grimmi's recent devblog on the PLEX market. We finally have some much needed hard data that helps us better see the supply-side of the PLEX market.

The bottom line is that >1200 PLEX are being traded every day at >300m each.

360,000,000,000 (360 billion) a day.


The yellow line is particularly interesting to me. Notice the spike in created plexes in March (blue line) and the dip in plex usage in June (red), which corresponded to a significant jump in plex creation and stockpiling (for value perhaps rather than usage). The jump in prices happened when that yellow line dipped and flatlined in May.

We see about 800 being utilized a day for subscriptions, which appears fairly stable.

On the flip side, there are about 16000 plex just sitting around collecting dust and the urge to create them seems to be on a general increase (blue line, above). This WILL have long-term and major market implications. People continue to invest in plex with the likely belief prices will rise again.

Supplies are far outpacing demand and appear to be based purely on real cash investment towards the end of commodities trading. The plex supply has more than doubled in just a few months, while the demand remains relatively flat. The question is how the owners of these 16,000 will handle any volatility in the coming months.

If these were all investors who used ISK to stockpile some plex, then they won't be so eager to sell at a loss. If these were heavily made up of people using real cash to create plex, then they may be interested in dumping plex if prices tank again. We'll see.


8-18: i just posted similar points at http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1145342&page=3

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